briefing

Minera Exar investment of US$1.2bn approved for RIGI by Milei

Plus, China Union Holdings buys Argentum Lithium SA.

Agenzia Nova. CC.

Plus, China Union Holdings buys Argentum Lithium SA.

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LATAM–China Monitor

Weekly LCM Briefing | Issue #11 | Coverage: [16-29.05.26]

Action Key:

SIGNAL — Confirmed action with material or strategic impact.

WATCH — Developments indicating possible future action.

NOISE — Informational updates without material impact.

Source Trust: T1 (Low) → T4 (Institutional/Verifiable) | Bias: BW=Western, BC=Pro-PRC, BN=National, BSP=Specialist Press, BS=State-backed, BR=Right, BL=Left

This week — key signals:

Minera Exar is admitted to Argentine RIGI
China Union Holdings buys Argentum Lithium SA
General Motors (GM) to start manufacturing popular Chevrolet Aveo in Mexico

The view from Beijing:

Colombia is heading to the polls on the 31st of May for the first round of an election to replace left-wing incumbent Gustavo Petro (Historic Pact). Petro formally joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in May 2025 – the agreement, however, was a nonbinding memorandum of understanding, which could easily be undone by Petro’s successor. Currently, the election is a three-way race between Petro’s nominated successor — Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact), a scion of communist senator Manuel Cepeda Vargas and human rights activist; Abelardo de la Espriella, a lawyer and partner of the far-right National Salvation Movement; and Paloma Valencia (Democratic Centre), a lawyer and economist who is a granddaughter of Conservative 1960s president Guillermo Leon Valencia. The election, set against a backdrop of instability in neighbouring Venezuela and a cooling relationship between Petro and Trump, will also decide Colombia’s level of alignment towards China for the next four years.
Currently, Colombia is moderately coupled with China — more in trade and FDI than in security terms. Cepeda has signalled that his foreign policy would be a “continuation” of Petro’s stance: retaining BRI membership and welcoming Chinese FDI strategically into the country. However, this will probably be considered a hedge against US power, rather than a full-scale embrace of Chinese influence. In contrast, Espriella is seen as the MAGA and US aligned candidate, modelling himself on the insurgent candidacies of Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele. Despite his rhetorical commitment to the Trump slate of anti-cartel, law and order and anti-China politics, Espriella has yet to make any firm policy commitments regarding Beijing. Valencia has the most coherent China line — advocating for an embrace of Chinese trade under “free competition.” Valencia has combined this pragmatic stance towards China with an openly pro-US foreign policy that would have Colombia join the Washington-led anti-cartel Shield of Americas. China and the US are currently Colombia’s 2nd and 1st largest trading partners – respectively – so the policy space to move from strategic non-alignment towards one pole or the other will be constrained.
A major development, after the recent Xi-Trump summit in Beijing this month, has been a tacit agreement on the part of China to purchase more soybeans and beef from US producers. Prior to the trade war between Trump and Xi, the US produced up to 90% of soybeans consumed by China (2018). This figure dropped to 20% in 2024. The move will affect major beef and soy suppliers to China, including Brazil and Uruguay — whose farming sectors have already had Chinese quotas imposed. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has claimed that China will purchase “double-digit billions” of US farm goods post the summit.
The recent BRICS summit in Delhi — including China and Brazil — failed to issue a joint statement after participants declined to come to an agreement on the current Iran-US-Israel war. The summary statement from the host, India, did not include an analysis of which countries chose to condemn the war in Iran. It remains unclear how both Brazil and China choose to align themselves at the summit.
The Shanghai and Hong Kong listed Zijin Mining Group has had its outlook upgraded by ratings agency S&P — from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’ while retaining its BBB rating. The rankings are based on market expectations that Zijin could be among the world’s top 3 gold and copper producers by 2028. Zijin holds multiple gold, copper and lithium assets in Latin America: including the Tres Quebradas Salar lithium project in Argentina and the La Arena copper and gold mine in Peru.
Peru will hold its presidential run-off elections between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sanchez on the 7th of June. Issue 9 of the LCM discussed the differing China alignments of the two candidates.

Cross Country:

Debt

[WATCH] [20.05.26] Fitch Ratings has flagged risk for Latin American corporates, especially in the chemical, automotive, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and airline sectors as the global market faces up to a potential oil price crisis and demand shock generated by the Iran-US-Israel war. Under a scenario where global oil prices reached US$100 per barrel, Fitch assesses that nine of thirty-six LATAM sectors would be at high risk. Source: [Fitch].

Brazil:

Politics

[WATCH] [20.05.26] Workers employed at the Port of Paranagua in the southeastern Brazilian state of Parana have been staging peaceful protests against a proposed federal Brazilian law (733). Law 733 would open up employment in Brazil’s ports to those outside of union-controlled casual labour pools, allowing companies to bring in outsourced and foreign labour. The port workers are backed by the local government in Paranagua. Paranagua is a major export hub for soybeans destined for Chinese consumption. Source: [Bem Parana].

Infrastructure

[WATCH] [21.05.26] The Brazilian government has announced its intention to move forward with auctions for two major concessions: the access channel of the Port of Itajaí in the southeastern state of Santa Catarina and Line 21 of the São Paulo subway. What to watch for: Chinese SOEs have a strong precedent of bidding on metro lines and port concessions. Brazil’s federal government, under the leadership of Lula, is relatively friendly and open to Chinese FDI. Positive diplomatic language from Lula might signal a move towards Chinese bidders. Source: [BN Americas].

Trade

[WATCH] [16.05.26] A giant Chinese container ship, Star Norge, docked at the Port of Paranagua after making its maiden voyage this month. The ship was built in China and transports cellulose. Source: [CPG].

Argentina:

Commodities

[SIGNAL] [18.05.26] Minera Exar, the project company operating Jujuy Province’s Cauchari-Olaroz lithium mine, has announced that its investment to expand operations has been admitted by Milei’s government to the RIGI (Large Investment Incentive Regime). The RIGI grants Minera Exar’s investment of US$1.2bn to increase lithium extraction capacity to 85,000 tonnes per year, a suite of regulatory benefits including a guaranteed 30-year legal landscape, lower corporation tax, and looser capital controls. Minera Exar is owned as a joint venture by Chinese lithium giant Ganfeng (46.7%), Lithium Argentina (44.8%) and Argentine province level SOE JEMSE (8.5%). Why this matters: RIGI approval materially raises the likelihood that Argentina will convert its large lithium resource base into actual sustained output growth rather than stalled projects. In probabilistic terms, it shifts Argentina upward from “option value” territory to a credible supply source. Source: [Panorama Minero].
[SIGNAL] [23.05.26] China Union Holdings (CUH), a consortium made up of Hualian Development Group (30.4%), Shenzhen Hengyu Capital Management (30.4%) and retail investors, has bought a 100% stake in Argentum Lithium SA, the majority company behind the Arizaro lithium project in Salta, Argentina — giving CUH an 80% stake in the mine. The stake was purchased for US$175mn from the Chilean miner Lithium Chile. The transaction remains pending, with a US$5mn deposit paid in February 2026. China Union Holdings is ultimately controlled by Gong Zemin through Hengyu Capital Management — the Gong family made their money in luxury real estate in Shenzhen before transitioning into mining. Source: [Discovery Alert].
[WATCH] [20.05.26] Lithium Argentina (LA) — a major joint venture partner in the Cauchari-Olaroz with Ganfeng Lithium (which also owns a 9.6% stake in LA), held its Q1 earnings call this month. LA executives signalled strong cashflow growth, with EBITDA earnings jumping from US$30mn in Q4 to US$106mn in Q1 on the back of lithium price growth. LA suggested that much of this EBITDA growth will be translated into free cash flow in the coming year. Source: [Tip Ranks].

Fishing

[WATCH] [21.05.26] The United States Congress, under the CCP Committee, has been investigating aggressive Chinese fishing in Argentine waters. The committee undertook field work in Argentina and Chile and documented large clashes between local authorities and Chinese fishing fleets in the two countries' far south. Central to the committee's report was an incident just before the 2018 G20 summit — where Chinese fleets clashed with the Argentine naval prefecture. According to the report, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, of which Chinese fleets can be a part, has cost South American countries a total of US$2.3bn in lost income. Source: [Infobae].

FDI

[WATCH] [28.05.26] The public-private controlled Chery, co-owned by Chinese state governments (36.34%) and private investors (63.66%), has announced its premium brand: Omoda & Jaecoo (O&J) will begin manufacturing automobiles in Argentina through a directly managed subsidiary of Chery. It is not yet clear where O&J will set up a manufacturing plant — but the brand has prior form: buying a redundant Jaguar Land Rover plant for operations in Brazil. Source: [La Nacion].

Mexico:

Policy

[NOISE] [16.05.26] Tourism minister Josefina Rodríguez has announced the start of ‘Plan China’ — an effort to up Chinese tourism presence in Mexico from its current 14th place to 10th through digital marketing. Mexico will also debut a stand at ITB China, a major tourism trade fair in Shanghai at the end of this month. Source: [Mexico News Daily].

Energy

[WATCH] [19.05.26] Two hundred SMEs in the northeastern Mexican state of Tamaulipas with experience in energy will form a state-sponsored consortium focused on renewables in the region. The consortium will work on infrastructure declared by the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). Zuma Energía, a large-scale renewable power utilities company with assets across Mexico, will play an advisory role – aiding micro-companies in setting up clean energy infrastructure. Zuma Energía is wholly owned by the Chinese SOE State Power Investment Corporation of China (SPIC). Source: [Milenio].

Diplomacy

[NOISE] [16.05.26] The Chinese ambassador to Mexico, Chen Daojiang, reaffirmed China’s commitment to Mexico’s sovereignty and autonomy, while expressing a desire to strengthen and deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries. The sentiments were expressed during a meeting with Mexico’s new foreign minister Roberto Velasco Álvarez. Source: [La Jornada].

Trade

[WATCH] [27.05.26] Mexico’s Ministry of the Economy has started an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese mirror glass, according to the Official Gazette of the Federation. Mexican producers have alleged Chinese dumping practices occurring between 1st October 2022 and 30th September, 2025. Source: [BakerMcKenzie]

FDI

[SIGNAL] [28.05.26] General Motors (GM) will start manufacturing its popular Chevrolet Aveo and Chevrolet Groove models from Mexico instead of importing them from China, as of 2027. The move was announced at a press conference with President Claudia Sheinbaum — the Aveo and Groove investments form part of a US$1bn GM fund targeted at Mexico. The cars will be manufactured for domestic consumption at a plant in Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila near Monterrey. Many consider the move by GM to be a way of positioning the company to benefit from the Morena government’s ‘Plan Mexico’ — a six year industrial policy focused on import-substitution industrialization. Source: [Automotive Logistics].
[WATCH] [26.05.26] US and Dutch HQ’ed multi-national, Stellantis have broached the importation of Chinese cars into Canada and Mexico, but not the US. According to CEO Antonio Filosa, the company is considering Mexico and Canada focused partnerships with preexisting joint venture associates like Chinese Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (21% Stellantis ownership). Source: [Mexico Business News].

Chile:

Commodities

[WATCH] [16.05.26] Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM), which is part owned by Chinese Tianqi Lithium (22%), has announced that it is upping its dividends from 30% of net income to 50%. SQM has also announced a new US$3bn joint venture with Chilean state miner Codelco to launch a lithium extraction project in the Atacama Desert. Source: [Sahm Capital].

Further reading:

Reuters, ‘China’s Fishing Fleets in Argentina,’ [13.05.26]

Foreign Policy, ‘China is Transforming Brazil’s Car Market,’ [8.05.26]

New Lines Institute, ‘The Iran War and Chinese Clean Energy in South America,’ [8.05.26]

New York Times, ‘US-China Rivalry Reaches South American Skies,’ [10.05.26]

Financial Times, ‘Trump is pushing Canada and Mexico towards China,’ [28.05.26]

About this briefing:

LATAM–China Monitor (LCM) aggregates weekly developments in policy, politics, infrastructure, commodities, energy, FDI, diplomacy, and military cooperation across Latin America and China. This project is designed to support future strategic briefings and political risk advisory services from SinoAméricas (SA).

This briefing is free and focuses on aggregation.

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