Ecuador prepares to turn Coca Codo Sinclair dam over to Power China

Plus, Bolivia’s government will “honor” existing energy and infrastructure contracts with China

Week(s) in brief:

• Ecuador prepares to turn the Coca Codo Sinclair dam over to Power China
• Lithium Chile prepares to sell Salta project to China Union Holdings
• US State Department approves US$1.5 billion contract in port equipment and services to Peru 
• Bolivia’s government will “honor” existing energy and mining contracts with Russia and China 

LATAM–China Monitor

Weekly LCM Briefing | Issue #2 | Coverage: [14-25.01.26] 

| Ecuador | Brazil | Argentina | Chile | Cuba | Peru | Panama | Venezuela | Bolivia | Mexico  

About this briefing:

LATAM–China Monitor (LCM) aggregates weekly developments in policy, politics, infrastructure, commodities, energy, FDI, diplomacy, and military cooperation across Latin America and China. This project is designed to support future strategic briefings and political risk advisory services from SinoAméricas (SA).

The view from Beijing: 

• China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ramps up, in 2025, by 75% (YoY) to US$213.5 bn — spending is dominated by gas and green energy megaprojects.
• Relative lithium price slump ends in response to hiked China demand. 
• Zou Jiayi, a former CCP technocrat, assumes the presidency of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 
• The New Development Bank (a multilateral institution, established by the BRICS, and led by former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff) has signed a loan agreement with China’s Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (SHRCB) to finance the Greener Shanghai Project at US$100mn.  

Ecuador:

Infrastructure 

• Signal [19.01.26] The SOE, Power China (PC), is closer to taking over operation of Ecuador’s Coca Coda Sinclair dam, after reaching an agreement with the nation’s government. In 2025, the Ecuadorian government agreed to drop international arbitration against Power China’s subsidiary SinoHydro, in return for US$400mn and PC taking over the dam (which has faced a number of construction issues). As of January, 2026, negotiations on pending issues between PC and Ecuador have concluded. The US$400mn is due to the Ecuadorian government by December 2026. Source: [El Universo]. 

BRICS: 

Military

• Watch [17.01.26] ‘Will for Peace’ naval operations were held by BRICs off the coast of South Africa between the 12-16 January. The Brazilian navy was, noticeably, missing from the event. Source: [SCMP].  

Brazil: 

Infrastructure

• Watch [15.01.26] Chinese SOEs, COSCO Shipping and CMP (China Merchants Port) are seeking the purchase of a lease on a new container terminal in Brazil’s Port of Santos on the Atlantic coast. An auction for the container port is to be scheduled for the first quarter of 2026. CMP’s vice-president, Qi Yue, visited Brasilia in the first week of January 2026 to express interest to the Brazilian government regarding the lease. Source: [CLA]. 

Commodities

• Watch [14.01.26] Chinese buyers brought forward large purchases of soybeans from Brazil in 2025, in response to the trade war between Washington and Beijing. December 2025, imports of soybeans from Brazil (and Argentina) to China, rose 1.3% (YoY) to 8.04mn tonnes a month. Trade analysts expect inflows to slow to 7.48mn in January 2026. Source: [Reuters].  

FDI

• Watch [15.01.26] Chinese metering equipment company, Kaifa, has signalled its intention to invest US$41.2mn into factory operations in Brazil’s Manaus free trade zone in the far western state of Amazonas. The investment will help supply smart metres to Telefonica Brazil and water utility company Sabesp. The plant will be Kaifa’s first outside Asia. Source: [BNAmericas]. 
• Watch [15.01.26] GWM (Great Wall Motor) CEO, Parker Shi has signed a memorandum of understanding with Ricardo Ferraço, the vice governor of the southeastern state of Espírito Santo — regarding the construction of automotive plants in the state’s city of Aracruz. The memorandum was signed during a visit by the vice governor to China in January. Source: [Valor]. 

Agriculture

• Watch [14.01.26] The Brazilian government has constructed a quota system to navigate China’s beef import tariffs that kick-in at 55% on out-of-quota sales. Brazil is limiting shipments of beef to China for the rest of the year to 80k tonnes per month, to come under Beijing’s current 1.1mn tonne annual quota. Source: [Beef World]. 
• Watch [14.01.26] The SOE, COFCO (China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation) has had its two-decade multilateral pact with other major soy purchasers not to buy grain from deforested areas in the Amazon collapse this month. Global grain traders, including COFCO, abandoned the Amazon Soy Moratorium in January after pressure was applied by the state government of the western region of Mato Grosso. The state’s local government announced it would pull tax incentives from major grain purchasers if they continued to abide by the moratorium. COFCO has announced that “third-party” auditors will continue verifying that 99% of their grain purchases are “deforestation free.” Source: [Reuters].   

Trade

• Watch [15.01.26] SME internet providers in Brazil are contesting a government anti-dumping measure against Chinese fibre optic cable imports — warning of increased costs to consumers. Last year, the Foreign Trade Chamber (Camex) applied an anti-dumping duty of US$2.42 per kg of cable imports from China. Technical manufacturing concerns in Brazil, such as Prysmian and Furukawa have backed the move. Source: [BNAmericas]. 

Argentina:

Trade 

• Watch [15.01.26] BYD has sent its own ship, the BYD Changzhou to Argentina — arriving at the Zárate Terminal in Buenos Aires province on 18 January. The ship has the capacity to transport 7,000 units of EVs. BYD has a quota of 50k EV imports into Argentina in 2025, the maximum needs to be reached by 31 January, 2026. Source: [MobilityPortal]. 

Energy 

• Watch [14.01.26] Argentine company Tonkar Solar has agreed a 200 MW deal with Chinese firm Archtech. The latter will provide solar trackers and technical support to Tonkar Solar’s photovoltaic projects in Argentina. Source: [CanalSolar]. 

Mexico:

Infrastructure

• Noise [19.01.26] Hutchinson Ports, a subsidiary of Hong-Kong based, CK Hutchinson, has docked a record-breaking long vessel — container ship CMA CGM Orfeo — at the Atlantic port of Veracruz. Since 2019, Hutchinson Ports have invested US$ 518.3mn into a specialised container terminal at Veracruz. Source: [NoticiasEnLaMira].  

Chile:

Commodities

• Signal [15.01.26] Lithium Chile is progressing its sale of the Arizaro lithium project in Salta Province, Argentina to Shenzhen-based company China Union Holdings Ltd for US$175mn. Lithium Chile will seek approval from shareholders to sell its Arizaro assets in its May, 2026 AGM. Source: [INN]. 
• Noise [19.01.26] Chilean mining company —  Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) — has had its share price target raised to $95 from $71 by HSBC. SQM is part owned (23.77%) by Sichuan-based mining company Tianqi Lithium. HSBC expects significant volume growth in SQM’s lithium mining activities this year. Source: [Investing].  

Diplomacy

• Watch [20.01.26] Chinese Ambassador to Chile Niu Qingbao, attended the launch of a joint scientific expedition into the Atacama Trench. The event was held on the research vessel ‘Exploration One’ in the Chilean port city of Valparaiso. The expedition will be conducted between the Chinese Institute of Deep-Sea Science and the Chilean Millennium Institute of Oceanology. Source: [Chinese Embassy - Chile].  

Peru: 

Military

• Signal [15.01.26] The US State Department has approved the sale to the Peruvian government of US$1.5 billion in equipment and services, to aid efforts to move the nation’s main naval base in Callao. Moving Peru’s naval base will allow for the expansion of Callao’s commercial capacity. The Callao commercial port is a competitor to the Chinese built Chancay mega port located 80km north. Source: [Reuters].

Trade

• Signal [17.01.26] COSCO Shipping has launched a sea freight route between Shanghai and Peru — terminating at Chancay Port. In collaboration with the Peruvian postal service, COSCO aims to lower prices on Chinese consumer goods. Source: [PortTechnology]. 

Venezuela:

Debt

• Watch [14.01.26] Chinese officials have sought talks with the Venezuelan and US governments to gain assurance over their loans to Caracas. Estimates of Venezuelan debt to China range between US$10 and 20bn. Beijing is insisting on involvement in any debt restructuring that is undertaken in the Latin American country. Source: [Bloomberg]. 

Energy 

• Watch [14.01.26] China’s oil imports from Venezuela are expected to drop starting in February. Numbers of oil tankers departing from Caracas to China have sharply dropped post the US’s unilateral military action against the country in early January and the imposition of a naval blockade by Washington. Source: [Reuters].  

Diplomacy 

• Noise [21.01.26] On January 17, the Chinese embassy in Venezuela held a symposium for the Chinese diaspora in the Latin American nation. Diplomatic staff issued a statement at the event declaring that: “the Embassy will steadfastly uphold the principle of diplomacy for the people and do its utmost to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens and institutions in Venezuela.” Source: [Chinese Embassy - Venezuela]. 

Panama: 

Infrastructure

• Watch [14.01.26] Beijing is threatening to block the sale of 40 ports owned by CK Hutchinson, including several in Panama. Beijing will block the move if the SOE COSOC does not get a stake in the proposed infrastructure alongside BlackRock and the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). Source: [DredgeWire]. 
• Watch [14.01.26] Panama’s Supreme Court is weighing up the constitutionality of CK Hutchinson’s ownership of two ports on opposite sides of the Panama Canal:  Balboa and Cristóbal. If the court rules against CK Hutchinson, the Hong-Kong based company will no longer operate the two ports it is planning to include in its 40 unit sale to companies such as BlackRock and MSC. Source: [SourcingJournal].  

Cuba:

Soft power & aid

• Noise [19.01.26] Chinese ambassador to Cuba, Hua Xin has presented the Caribbean country with 30k tonnes of rice as an aid offering. Source: [Hua Xin - X]  

Bolivia:

Commodities

• Signal [19.01.26] Bolivia’s centrist government has announced it will “honor” hydrocarbon and lithium agreements with Russia and China, according to energy minister Mauricio Medinaceli in comments made to Reuters. Source: [Reuters]. 

Key:

SIGNAL — Confirmed action with material or strategic impact.

WATCH — Developments indicating possible future action.

NOISE — Informational updates without material impact.

Further reading:

The American Conservative, ‘As Trade Talks Loom, Canada and Mexico Take Opposite Tracks,’ [18.01.26] — Canada and Mexico reverse positions on America under Trump as USMCA renegotiations draw closer. 

New York Times, ‘Lula: This Hemisphere Belongs to All of Us,’ [18.01.26] — Brazilian president Lula writes that: “we will not be subservient to hegemonic endeavors. Building a prosperous, peaceful and pluralistic region is the only doctrine that suits us,” in response to the US’s unilateral action against Venezuela.” 

The Atlantic, ‘Some Foreign Influence Will be Hard to Reverse,’ [14.01.26] — Chinese involvement in Latin America runs deeper and longer than a set of transactional investments. 

To watch next week:

Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi plans to lead an official delegation to China from February 3 to 7 — taking a record number of officials. More details of the trip could be released next week. 

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